________________________________________________________________________ Iran's own power struggle behind scenes at summit ____________________________________________________________________________ Copyright ) 1997 Nando.net Copyright ) 1997 Reuters TEHRAN (December 7, 1997 10:17 a.m. EST http://www.nando.net) - Iran maintained a facade of unity to welcome Islamic world leaders to Iran this week, but a power struggle over the future of the Islamic republic seems waiting to erupt again. It pits a cautious, modernizing president against a conservative Shi'ite Moslem leadership which has still not digested his surprise landslide victory last May and has no intention of yielding the levers of power they control. President Mohammad Khatami, who will host more than two dozen Moslem leaders at the biggest diplomatic event since the 1979 Islamic revolution, faces a tough battle to implement his policies over hardliners supporting supreme Islamic leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. "Mr Khatami won only the presidential election, that's all," says former foreign minister Ebrahim Yazdi, leader of a small semi-legal liberal opposition party and a sharp observer of Iranian political life. "The extreme right lost the election but they control all the powers: parliament, radio and television, the security forces, the supreme leader's institutions, the Friday prayers preachers. "More than that, they have very strong economic power -- a big slice of gross national product is controlled by so-called revolutionary foundations that pay no taxes and answer directly to the leader," Yazdi said. Iran's 1979 constitution, tailor-made for the late revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, vests ultimate power in the "faqih" or religious legal scholar, who is commander-in-chief of the armed forces and can make peace or war. But Khamenei lacks Khomeini's charisma and learning, and his legitimacy has been challenged both by veteran Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, sacked as Khomeini's anointed successor after he criticised human rights abuses, and by dissident philosopher Abdolkarim Soroush, who advocates separating mosque and state. Khatami, himself a clergyman, controls government ministries but not the police. His speeches are sometimes censored by state television and his efforts to revive an inflation-battered economy are cramped by hardline opposition to taxing wealthy bazaar traders or privatising the foundations' industrial empire. Street gangs controlled by the hardliners occasionally turn out to beat up reformist students or prevent intellectuals speaking. "The only thing Khatami has is the popular support of the nation, which urgently wants change," said businessman Sadegh Samii, who tries to run publishing and inspection companies in a forest of regulations and censorship. The strength of that "people power" was displayed last week when millions of Iranians poured into the streets spontaneously to celebrate their national soccer team's qualification for the World Cup finals. Scenes of mixed youth dancing in the street and an incident in which women forced their way into the national sports stadium, defying strict sex segregation, were unanimously seen as a political warning to the ruling clergy. "The people want to show their power, that if they come out into the streets nothing can stop them," said Shahla Lahiji, a women's rights campaigner and publisher. "Don't forget that most of our 60 million people are under the age of 25. The country is too young to be ruled by traditional or fundamentalist actions or ideas," she said. Signs of a desire for greater debate and a liberalisation of public life abound. More newspapers and magazines have been authorised since the election and offer a broader spectrum of opinion. Many women are wearing their compulsory Moslem headscarves more loosely and some are campaigning for reform in marriage and divorce laws. There is also less fear or repression or denunciation. Some taxi drivers openly play the Voice of America or the British Broadcasting Corporation on their radios as they cruise around Tehran. Ministers are talking of allowing foreign investment in the onshore oil and gas industry, long a taboo. But economist Fariborz Raisdana says the government has yet to provide the stable legal, regulatory and exchange rate conditions to attract capital from abroad. "Khatami's first budget stresses fighting inflation, maintaining exchange rate stability and tax moves to shift capital from the speculative trading sector to production. Those are the right priorities but he is too politically weak to take bolder measures," Raisdana said. Amid the mood of change and cautious optimism, many people fear a backlash by conservatives may be imminent. "You can feel the change in the atmosphere and see the green shoots of change sprouting, but many people say 'we've seen it all before, there will be a clampdown before things get out of hand'," a European diplomat said. Yazdi fears the Islamic hardliners are just waiting for Khatami to pick a fight so they can pressure him into quitting. "If they force him to resign, he'll be the last president in our country. Article 110 of the constitution allows the leader to rule through an Expediency Council until new presidential elections, which might be delayed," he said. That Expediency Council is headed by Khatami's predecessor, Hojatoleslam Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who has sought to position himself above the fray as an arbiter or consensus builder. Optimists say Rafsanjani is well placed to convince Khamenei and the clergy it is in their interest to allow a controlled, gradual economic and political liberalisation rather than risk a social explosion. Pessimists among Iran's revolution-weary intellectuals fear even the current timid opening could end in bloodshed by the Revolutionary Guards or the assassination of Khatami. So despite their frustration at the slow pace of change, most are giving the new president the benefit of the doubt as he tries slowly to loosen the straitjacket of Iranian life. -- By PAUL TAYLOR, Reuters
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