FC: AAAS' Patrick Ball testifies at Milosevic trial in The Hague

From: Declan McCullagh (declanat_private)
Date: Fri Mar 22 2002 - 22:50:47 PST

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    [Patrick has been a longtime Politech member and contributor. --Declan]
    From: ateichat_private
    Date: Thu, 14 Mar 2002 10:31:08 -0800 (PST)
    To: declanat_private
    Subject: Doing a Number on Violators
    From: Al Teich
    Your readers might be interested in this LA Times story about AAAS human 
    rights staffer Patrick Ball's testimony at the Milosevic trial in The Hague.
    Al Teich
    Doing a Number on Violators
    Patrick Ball has pioneered the use of databases to expose atrocities. At 
    tribunal, he blames Milosevic for Kosovo 'ethnic cleansing.'
    March 14 2002
    BOSTON -- As Patrick Ball scrawled equations across a conference-room white 
    board, his talk was of regression analysis, matching methodologies and 
    capture probabilities.
    The complete article can be viewed at:
    Date: Fri, 15 Mar 2002 18:59:25 +0000
    From: John Eisenschmidt <jweisenat_private>
    To: declanat_private
    Subject: AAAS Stastician Testifies Against Milosevic
    Declan - FYI
    AAAS Statistician Testifies for Prosecution in Milosevic Trial
    March 2002
    A AAAS statistician testified early this week in the war crimes trial 
    against former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic. In the face of a 
    combative cross-examination by Milosevic, who is serving as his own 
    attorney, Patrick Ball, deputy director of the AAAS Science and Human 
    Rights Program , defended his 67-page analysis of data that suggests that 
    from March through June 1999, Yugoslav forces carried out a systematic 
    campaign of killing and expulsions of Kosovar Albanians that led to the 
    deaths of more than 10,000 people. Ball's testimony seems to rule out other 
    potential causes that had been proposed by Milosevic and his defenders -- 
    that the dead had been killed by members of the Kosovo Liberation Army 
    (KLA) or during NATO air attacks.
    "The findings of this study are consistent with the hypothesis that action 
    by Yugoslav forces was the cause of the killings and the refugee flow," 
    Ball and his co-authors wrote in their report to the tribunal, Killings and 
    Refugee Flow in Kosovo: March-June 1999. "Killings were used either to 
    motivate the departures, or the killings were a result of the campaign."
    Interviews, Exhumation Records Among Data Sources
    To produce their report, Ball and his co-authors analyzed data on Kosovar 
    refugees from the registries of Albanian border guards in the Albanian 
    village of Morina, and complemented it with the records of other Albanian 
    governent agencies and the U.N. High Commission for Refugees. The data on 
    killings were drawn from exhumation records, and from interviews with 
    refugees conducted by the Human Rights Watch, the Organization for Security 
    and Cooperation in Europe and the American Bar Association's Central and 
    East European Law Initiative, co-sponsor with AAAS of the Ball report. Ball 
    explains that the data on killings and refugee flows, based on 15,000 
    interviews and exhumation records, reveal that both seemed to occur in the 
    same place, at the same time, and in distinct surges that suggest "the 
    existence of an external cause."
    Patterns in Refugee Flow and Killings
    "When the overall estimates are compared at the regional level, a clear 
    relationship remains between the patterns of refugee flow and killings," 
    according to Ball's report to the tribunal. "The structure of the patterns 
    in both refugee flow and killings over the time period in question is the 
    key component for the findings of the present study...They correlated, 
    nearly simultaneous variations in the social phenomena being measured in 
    time and location strongly suggest a common, systematic cause of which the 
    patterns are a result." Ball and his co-authors, Wendy Betts, Fritz 
    Scheuren, Jana Dudukovich and Jana Asher, tested the data against what they 
    knew about patterns of KLA activity and NATO airstrikes, and found that 
    NATO and the KLA increased their activities after clear spikes in the 
    number of killings and level of refugee flows, and not before. In contrast, 
    the study's authors note that the only time there was "a drastic reduction 
    in killings and refugee movement" came during a ceasefire that the Yugoslav 
    government called to coincide with the celebration of the Orthodox Easter.
    --Coimbra Sirica
    John W. Eisenschmidt <jweisenat_private>
      Homepage URL    | http://www.eisenschmidt.org/jweisen
      PGP Public Key  | http://www.eisenschmidt.org/jweisen/misc/jeisenschmidt.asc
      PGP Fingerprint | 5F9B F916 5AD1 3295 CF99 BC1E 1F97 E6A3 37E3 BEF2
    To: declanat_private
    From: Macki <mackiat_private>
    Date: Sun, 17 Mar 2002 03:13:25 -0800
    Subject: milosevic and the cDc
    Hey Declan,
    Thought you might find this amusing:
    Patrick Ball was on the cDc's hactivism panel at defcon.
    "On Wednesday, 13 March, Patrick Ball, deputy director of the
    AAAS Science and Human Rights Program , appeared before the
    International War Crimes Tribunal in the Hague to to begin
    testifying for the prosecution in the trial of former Yugoslav
    president Slobodan Milosevic."
    Slobodan grilled Patrick about the Cult of the Dead Cow and comments he made
    during his talk.
    Here is video of the relavent portion:
    Here is the transcript that he appearantly found and was quoting from:
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