FC: Feds say nanotech is huge commercial market -- so they must fund it

From: Declan McCullagh (declanat_private)
Date: Thu Apr 10 2003 - 13:00:24 PDT

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    [Let's get this right. If nanotechnology will be a _$1 trillion_
    industry soon (and Bond thinks it might be far more), aren't there
    going to be some VCs who want a slice of this? If his statements of
    fact are correct, it seems like there are compelling reasons for the
    government *not* to be involved: Businesses aren't stupid, and they'll
    make the necessary investments to get a leg up on their
    competitors. Investors will do the same, in hopes of a wildly
    profitable return. More to the point, federal funding relies on the
    faulty assumption that Congress can make better choices about where to
    spend money than businesses can. Large areas of society are taxed at a
    relatively small rate to give relatively large handouts to favored
    groups, such as the nanotech folks, who are politically connected
    (recall they hired Newt Gingrich). That may be good politics, but it
    doesn't make for good science or good economics. --Declan]
    
    ---
    
    http://www.ta.doc.gov/Speeches/PJB_030404.htm
    
                             Technology Administration
                                  KEYNOTE ADDRESS
                                          
                                 By Phillip J. Bond
                     Undersecretary of Commerce for Technology
                        United States Department of Commerce
                                          
                              Delivered April 4, 2003
                   at the National Nanotechnology Initiative 2003
                                 in Washington, DC
                                          
       Good morning.
       
       I am honored to be here with all of you -the intrepid men and women
       who are pushing back the frontiers of science and technology at the
       nano-level and working to deliver nano-enabled products and services
       to the market.
       
       I want to begin by thanking those responsible for putting this event
       together. This conference creates a venue where we can come together
       share ideas, learn from each others' successes and failures, identify
       current and future challenges, and build common visions that we can
       all work toward. In particular, I want to join the chorus of those
       expressing appreciation to conference chair Mike Roco of the National
       Science Foundation for his tireless efforts in bringing not only this
       conference, but the National Nanotech Initiative itself to fruition.
       
       It is my honor today to represent the U.S. Department of Commerce and
       its Technology Administration, where the NNI is an important priority.
       In fact, it is so important that Commerce has two unique roles to play
       in this historic initiative.
       
       First, as you know after hearing Dr. Shull's update yesterday, the
       Department plays a role through NIST in the development of the science
       and technology especially in the development of the tools and
       standards that enable researchers to work and accurately measure at
       the nanoscale. We are exceedingly proud of their extraordinary work
       being carried out by NIST researchers, including our Nobel Prize
       winners. This morning, I want to take the opportunity to talk about
       the Commerce Department's second role in the NNI: ensuring that the
       United States maximizes the extraordinary potential of this technology
       to the Nation's economy.
       
       The Commerce Department has an overarching theme for all of our
       activities that I would like to use as the framework for my remarks
       this morning: American Jobs, American Values.
       
       Please note the symbolism present in our thematic logo. "American
       Jobs" rests upon "American Values." Yes, we want to create high wage
       jobs-in fact, we must create high wage jobs to sustain our nation's
       standard of living-but we must build these jobs according to the
       values we hold dear-values such as respecting and protecting the
       health, safety, and fundamental dignity of human beings; respecting
       and protecting and respecting the economic principles that foster
       competition and innovation, such as intellectual property rights, and
       trade policies that ensure a level-playing field.
       
       As everyone hears knows, to say that nanotechnology holds promise for
       future economic growth and job creation is a gross understatement. We
       intend to capitalize on this potential. But with this promise comes
       the need to make sure its development and application are consistent
       with American values. My remarks this morning will address these
       opportunities as well as some of the public policy concerns.
       
       First, the opportunities...and there are many.
       
       As Richard Russell, Mike Roco and others no doubt have explained, the
       federal government will invest more than $700 million this year in the
       NNI, and President Bush has proposed a record $847 million for
       nanotechnology in FY 2004. Like any investor, we hope to reap
       substantial returns. We believe that investing in nanotechnology will
       enable us to maintain American leadership in technology and create
       those high value-added jobs I referred to earlier. And with those jobs
       and growth will come the revenues to do all those things we desire to
       do as Americans:
         * strengthen our national defense,
         * enhance homeland security,
         * finance improvements in our education system,
         * improve out health care system,
         * make us self-reliant in energy,
         * improve our food stocks,
         * pay down our debts,
         * protect our environment. and
         * and last and far from least bolster the commercial competitiveness
           of the United States.
           
       These are big dreams for small science. But, as you know better than
       I, these are realistic dreams.
       
       The broad range of developments we call nanotechnology have moved out
       of the genre of science fiction, into our academic and industrial
       laboratories, and increasingly, into the marketplace.
       
       More than ever before, those nations which are among the first to
       harness the potential of new technology will be the one's that reap
       their rewards. I'm here this morning in large part to assure you that
       the leaders of the Department of Commerce-Secretary Don Evans and
       Deputy Secretary Sam Bodman-understand this. They understand
       nanotechnology-especially its convergence with information technology,
       biotechnology and cognitive research at the nanoscale-represents the
       next revolution. A revolution that will impact nearly every industry
       and unleash heretofore unknown human potential.
       
       This is not hyperbole.
       
       When we talk about revolutionizing industry, we mean of course that
       companies embracing nano-based manufacturing -whether creating new
       products or making existing ones-will require different equipment and
       processes, different safety protocols and environmental control
       approaches, different suppliers, and workers with different knowledge
       and skills. New industries will arise, existing ones may be
       transformed, and yes some will disappear altogether as their products
       are supplanted by those of new nano-enabled industries, much the same
       as horse-and-buggy makers were largely replaced by automobile
       manufacturers.
       
       Of course as it already evident from the first commercial nano
       products-most of the first applications of nanotechnology will be more
       incremental than revolutionary. You know what I mean.
         * The most well known commercial application of nanotechnology is
           probably the use of nanowhiskers by Nano-Tex to produce the stain
           resistant fabric used in Lee Performance Khakis and other clothing
           products.
         * Also well known is Advanced Powder Technologies' ZinClear, a
           transparent sunscreen with UV protection superior to zinc oxide.
         * Nanocomposites in the running boards in SUVs
         * NanoBio, with products like NanoDefend which can be used to
           de-contaminate clothes and surfaces, and NanoGreen, which can be
           used on skin. Pretty timely watching the news from Iraq.
         * Finally, two nano products are making an impact on the sport of
           tennis. Nanotechnology is being applied to tennis balls to double
           their useful life, and to tennis rackets to reduce torsion.
           
       At first blush, these may not strike John Q. Public as revolutionary,
       but John Q. Public would be missing the deeper point.
       
       First, French manufacturer Babolat is using carbon nanotubes to
       rigidify its rackets, improving torsion resistance by 50 percent. To
       date, the company has introduced four rackets incorporating this
       technology. Of particular interest is how quickly Babolat has
       penetrated a mature market. While the company only began selling its
       line of rackets in the United States in 2000, they have already
       captured 5 to 10 percent of the U.S. market.
       
       Second, is the case of Inmat's Air D-Fense, the tennis balls with the
       nano-clay composite to slow the escape of air. This is what gives
       Wilson's Double Core tennis balls twice the life of standard tennis
       balls. Inmat believes its material can be used to coat the inside of
       automotive tires, a billion dollar market. Compared to current tire
       sealants, Inmat's nano-clay is much thinner and lighter. So in
       addition to the better sealant properties, it could potentially reduce
       material costs and reduce tire weight-which in turn would improve fuel
       economy. An added benefit claimed by Inmat would be easier and more
       environmentally-friendly recycling of tires.
       
       Today it is NanoDefend, tomorrow it's everything else in national
       security.
       
       "Nanotechnology is going to revolutionize everything we do" in the
       military, Gen. Les Lyles, Commander of Air Force Materiel Command,
       told the Armed Services Emerging Threat and Capabilities Subcommittee
       this past Monday. Rapid growth in market share...environment...energy
       efficiency...national security...government operations...sounds like
       the beginnings of a revolution.
       
       That is why the National Science Foundation, in consultation with a
       wide array of experts, has projected that the global market for nano
       products could reach $1 trillion by 2015. By comparison, total U.S.
       GDP is approximately $10.4 trillion. So we're talking about a market
       for nanotech products equal to about 10 percent of the entire U.S.
       economy today. And I for one would bet this is an underestimation. The
       accelerating rate of the accumulation of knowledge fueled by IT and
       the collaborative engine of the Internet lead me to conclude that
       models of the past cannot predict the rate of future advances.
       
       But set aside my irrational exuberance. Let's assume a $1 trillion
       dollar market within a dozen years, what would this mean in terms of
       jobs? If we look to IT-producing industries for guidance-and I think
       this is appropriate since IT-producing industries provide an average
       wage more than twice that of all private sector workers-and if the $1
       trillion estimate holds true, we could estimate the number of jobs
       created by nanotech products to be approximately 7 million.
       
       To get there it would take a revolution that touches every industry
       and that stretches toward the most fantastic possibilities that are so
       amazing and alluring.
         * Nanocomputers smaller than a bacterium.
         * Data storage devices with memory densities sufficient to store the
           entire collection of the Library of Congress on a device the size
           of a sugar cube.
         * Wearable digital systems that serve as personal brokers-
           interacting with our surroundings, anticipating our information
           needs, seeking it out, and delivering it as needed.
         * Materials up to 100 times stronger than steel, at a fraction of
           the weight.
         * "Clean" manufacturing processes that build from the atom up,
           reducing or eliminating or re-cycling material waste, energy waste
           and other of today's by-products.
         * Advanced educational technologies that adapt to our learning
           styles, employ personal avatars, use immersive environments that
           tap all of our senses, and deliver knowledge on a just-in-time
           basis.
         * Medical technologies that provide early detection and
           characterization of diseases or illnesses and enable targeted
           delivery of pharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals, gene therapy, and
           sensors; and
         * Bioengineered tissues to replace damaged or diseased tissues.
           
       This audience knows these are no longer like the pie-in-the-sky
       fantasies of some wild-eyed science fiction writer. And maybe once
       they were. But, in fact there are scientists and engineers here in
       this room and elsewhere in the United States and around the world
       working to make each of these visions a reality. And some may be
       closer to realization than you might imagine. You are involved in the
       ultimate disruptive technology. Disruptive on a scale larger, I submit
       than mass production and digital technology...and that's saying
       something.
       
       Now we are committed to American leadership. As we know from history,
       disruptive technologies can rapidly shift the global balance of
       economic and military power-a fact recognized and appreciated by
       nations around the world...and they are investing accordingly. For
       example:
         * The government of Japan regards nano as a key to the "restoration
           of the Japanese economy" and anticipates nano spending to reach
           about $1 billion in 2003.
         * The People's Republic of China expects central government spending
           on nano to be approximately $240 million over the next five years,
           and that local governments in China will spend an addition $240 to
           $360 million.
         * Annual nanotech investments in Korea are expected to be about $145
           million, in Taiwan about $112 million; and in Singapore about $37
           million.
         * In Israel, there is a growing appreciation of the importance of
           nanotechnology to the country's future. Ben-Gurion University, Tel
           Aviv University, the Hebrew University and the Technion have
           announced major investments in the areas of nanoscience and
           nanotechnology totaling over $100 million. The Israeli
           NanoBusiness Alliance is developing a proposal for an Israel
           National Nanotechnology Initiative modeled on the U.S initiative.
         * And in Europe, the EU Research Commissioner estimates nanotech
           funding under the Sixth Framework to be about $750 million per
           year; other estimates range as high as $ 915 million. Counting
           both national and EU-level investments in nano research, some
           estimate that total European investments in 2003 could be twice
           that of the United States, or perhaps even more!
           
       The European NanoBusiness Association even asserts that leadership in
       nanotechnology belongs to the EU in its report "It's Ours to Lose."
       While I am quite confident of the United States' leadership position
       in nanotechnology, companies will establish R&D and manufacturing
       operations wherever the leading edge research is being conducted.
       
       The good news is the United States is uniquely positioned to reap the
       potential of nanotechnology.
       
       Not only has President Bush has proposed record levels of Federal
       support for nanotechnology through the NNI, but state governments are
       spending additional millions to create and support nanotechnology
       centers at universities around the country. Our institutions of higher
       education are unparalleled in their ability to educate students and to
       conduct cutting edge research. Nano business and professional
       associations are forming faster than self-replicating nanobots. And we
       have an entrepreneurial culture and business climate that is the envy
       of the world.
       
       We are just now beginning to see the fruits of the investments made in
       nanoscience and nanotools over the past few years. The potential is
       beginning to emerge:
         * We are seeing today the seriousness with which major corporations
           are exploring the potential of nanotechnology to improve their
           products and processes.
           I tend to see this first and foremost among the IT companies-such
           as IBM, HP, Intel-where there is strong potential for
           breakthroughs and commercial products in the mid-term.
         * We are seeing increased interest among a once-burned, twice-shy
           venture capital community looking for the next big thing- -or
           little thing. Much of the venture money is sitting on the
           sidelines right now-wary of being sold a bill of goods after the
           dot-com bubble burst-but it is ready to move rapidly into nano
           applications as the technical risks fall.
         * We are watching entrepreneurs take the science and technology out
           of academic environments and working to build commercial products
           and companies around them.
         * We are seeing the blossoming of a network of
           organizations-professional, business, academic-designed to share
           information, facilitate relationships, and advance the application
           of nanotechnology.
         * We are seeing America's leading universities embrace
           nanotechnology as a principal field of research, and gearing up to
           educate America's future nano-engineers, nano-scientists, and
           nano-technicians for the jobs of the future.
         * And recognizing the potential of nanotechnology to spur economic
           growth and create jobs, we are seeing state governments, cities,
           and regions around the country seeking to become a nanotechnology
           hub of the future-a Silicon Valley of the 21st century-by
           investing in their universities' research activities, business
           incubators, and other infrastructure.
           
       All of these developments from tennis balls to new nano-clusters...all
       add up to a promising future of American jobs. And, as I said before,
       those jobs always ultimately must rest on American Values. And one key
       public value today is that we don't rapidly commercialize something
       that is widely perceived as dangerous.
       
       The hard truth is, despite all these encouraging activities
       surrounding the development and commercialization of nanotechnology,
       many Americans' understanding of nanotechnology are being shaped by
       Michael Crichton's new book, Prey. In a theater soon near you.
       
       This creates a challenge for policy makers and nanotech industry
       leaders....If we are to successfully commercialize nanotechnology in
       the United States, we must proactively address legitimate societal and
       ethical concerns, and ensure that nanotechnology development and
       applications are undertaken in accordance with American values.
       
       All disruptive technologies face some level of social resistance.
       During the Industrial Revolution, workers in Holland fearful for their
       jobs threw their wooden shoes-sabots-into the machinery, delivering
       the term "sabotage" to our vocabulary. At the end of the 19th century,
       Thomas Edison attempted to demonstrate the dangers of alternating
       current by electrocuting animals. While his interest was economic-he
       had a strong financial interest in direct current-he attempted to
       manipulate the public's fear of the unknown that accompanies a new
       technology.
       
       In the past, some of these fears have been well-founded and rational,
       it seems to me that most of them have not been well-founded. As we
       have seen in the early days of biotechnology, the more revolutionary a
       technology is, the more likely it is to face public resistance in its
       development and application. Already there are groups advocating a
       preemptive ban on nanotechnology research until any potential downside
       can be assessed. I submit that we need not sacrifice jobs on the alter
       of values, nor values on the alter of jobs. We can walk and chew gum
       at the same time.
       
       We know full well that the public at-large, and the body politic in
       particular, are highly susceptible to the virus of fear. So, we must
       act today to inoculate the public and the body politic against the
       virus of irrational fear, by studying and addressing legitimate
       concerns in this arena in advance. An ounce of prevention is worth a
       pound of cure. Neither an ounce nor a pound is very nano, but you get
       my point...We cannot afford to wait until irrational fears take hold.
       When Prey hits your neighborhood theater, it would be best if it was
       seen by a public that understands that it is, in fact, science fiction
       and that serious people are thinking about how to address any
       reasonable concerns. Make no mistake, there is strong bipartisan
       support for nanotechnology now and we want to protect that. We can and
       we have to.
       
       Throughout history, we have successfully managed the downsides of
       technology-though often through great effort. Addressing these
       potential barriers has enabled America to remain at the vanguard of
       technological innovation-leading the Industrial Revolution,
       revolutionizing agriculture, building horseless carriages, inventing
       and commercializing powered-flight, generating and transmitting
       electric power, splitting the atom, creating global communications
       networks, rocketing to the moon and back, and unleashing the power of
       semiconductors to bring about the Information Age. As a result, we
       have reaped the extraordinary economic and social benefits that
       technology yields.
       
       Nanotechnology should be no exception to this record of technological
       achievement, though this will require an informed and dedicated
       approach by all of us here today-scientists and engineers, business
       leaders and policy makers. Each of us must reach beyond our own
       immediate sphere of knowledge and interest-our comfort zones-to
       identify and overcome challenges so that we can bring to the world all
       that nanotechnology has to offer.
       
       Now unlike many of you, I am not a scientist or engineer, so I don't
       bring great technical knowledge to my work in this arena. But I do
       bring three important tools: passion, position and politics.
       
       Passion-because I believe fervently in the economic potential and
       social advances that nanotechnology can bring to the citizens of the
       United States and the rest of the world;
       
       Position-as Under Secretary of Commerce for Technology I can guarantee
       that the opportunities and challenges of nanotechnology are brought to
       the attention of Commerce Secretary Don Evans and other senior
       Administration officials in the White House and other Federal
       agencies; and
       
       Politics-the necessary evil. Nanotechnology's future runs through the
       nation's capital. The federal government plays an important role in
       funding fundamental, high-risk research. To borrow a line from BASF
       ads: We don't make nanotechnology products, but we fund the science
       and technology that makes nanotechnology products and processes
       possible. In addition, many of the societal and ethical concerns about
       nanotechnology research and products will be debated and addressed
       here in Washington. Whether that's for the good or detriment of
       society depends on each of us.
       
       I promise to work with you to bring my knowledge of this town's
       culture, institutions, and processes to bear in advancing our common
       nanotechnology agenda. But I also need your help....for years many in
       the technology sector shunned Washington....that is not the right
       approach...you need to be involved, helping educate elected officials,
       opinion leaders...about the true benefits and promise of
       nanotechnology. This is more important than ever given that
       nanotechnology bills have been introduced in both the Senate and House
       of Representatives that could shape the federal government's
       involvement in this field for years to come.
       
       In closing, I want to congratulate you on your successes to-date, to
       encourage your continued efforts in advancing nanoscale science and
       technology, and to urge you to engage in the societal, ethical and
       political discussions that will shape the future of nanotechnology.
       
       Thank you.
       
                            Date created: April 8, 2003
                                          
    
    
    
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