--- Date: Wed, 23 Apr 2003 00:19:33 +0800 To: declanat_private From: John Bacon-Shone <johnbsat_private> Subject: Re: FC: Replies to SARS and growth rates At 10:55 AM -0400 4/22/03, Declan McCullagh wrote: >[Back from an Easter vacation and catching up on CFP-week Politech >submissions... The folks below are right: Initially SARS looked like it >would grow exponentially but that has not turned out to be the case. A >graph resembles a straight line. Though with reports in the last 24 hours >that some crowded, financially-strapped hospitals in China are sending >away probable SARS patients to go back home in their communities, China >may be the exception. --Declan] Dear Declan You've been overtaken by events again, I'm afraid - China is finally admitting the full scale of infection in Beijing, at least, after sacking 2 key officials! They also cut the national holiday drastically to reduce the spread into the countryside. From a political perspective, it makes Hong Kong people feel positive that the new leadership in Beijing is a bit different to the previous group. Hong Kong originally looked very serious because we had one housing estate with a mass outbreak which came from just one liver cancer patient sent home when infected and with diarrhea. It appears that infection was via the faecal route as there was a flaw in the sewage system in the building the patient lived in. Now that is under control, the official rate is down to about 20 cases per day (very manageable). There is still concern that the drug treatment is not effective for some patients, including some people who are not old or unhealthy, but now that the genetic code for the virus has been cracked, hopefully more effective identification and treatments will follow. The interesting question is whether there are many more unreported cases which do not present with the official (serious) symptom profile. Ironically, this might be good, as it would increase the number of people with antibodies and hence reduce the risk of a full blown epidemic There is some basis for this, as when they tested people living in the most affected housing estate, many of them did not show the full blown symptoms, yet were found to be infected. It also means that arguments about what is the denominator for the death rate are moot at this point. Frankly, any disease that kills off healthy adults is a problem and what is scary about this disease is that essentially nobody has antibodies to the virus yet and of course there is no vaccine. Getting back on topic, it is fascinating how the virus has stimulated a strong immune response from civil society - people are realising that the government cannot do it all, so they better do something themselves, whether it is cleaning schools & old peoples homes or changing social behaviour (no more shaking hands here)! Some of the schools re-opened today and the others re-open next week. The panic is over here, but the worry will be here a while yet. Regards John PS Thanks for the great list! -- Dr. John Bacon-Shone, Director, Social Sciences Research Centre 8/F Meng Wah Complex, The University of Hong Kong Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong Tel: 852-28592412 Fax: 852-28584327 E-mail: johnbsat_private ------------------------------------------------------------------------- POLITECH -- Declan McCullagh's politics and technology mailing list You may redistribute this message freely if you include this notice. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- To subscribe to Politech: http://www.politechbot.com/info/subscribe.html This message is archived at http://www.politechbot.com/ Declan McCullagh's photographs are at http://www.mccullagh.org/ Like Politech? Make a donation here: http://www.politechbot.com/donate/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
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