[Politech] View from Berkeley and the unemployment ranks on U.S. offshoring

From: Declan McCullagh (declan@private)
Date: Wed Feb 25 2004 - 11:55:13 PST

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    Date: Wed, 25 Feb 2004 10:36:13 -0800
    Subject: Re: [Politech] An outsourcer's reply to Greenspan's testimony on overseas jobs
    Cc: rw2@private
    To: Declan McCullagh <declan@private>
    From: Chris Beaumont <chris@private>
    
    Declan,
    
    I don't see why people don't realize that this situation is driving an
    exodus away from CS among young people here in the US.
    
    Until two months ago, I worked on the campus of UC Berkeley. I rode
    the campus shuttle busses as often as four times a day and I would
    VERY often hear students talking about their majors and the job
    possibilities of graduates in various fields. I do computer work, so
    my ears would always perk up when I heard people talking about their
    majors in technical fields.
    
    Basically, in the years between 2000 and 2003, I saw computer science
    very rapidly go from being a 'good' major (one where the student saw a
    graduate as having a good chance of getting a decent job) to being a
    'bad' major (one where the student wishes he could switch to another
    major because the chances of getting a good job in his field were low,
    and even if one could get a job, salaries were decreasing.)
    
    So, of course, there will be a 'shortage of graduates' in computer science.
    
    What are they supposed to live on, patriotism?
    
    Anyone who still can (who is not a complete geek obsessed with it for
    other than economic reasons) is deserting (or has already deserted) it
    as a major and moving to other, more lucrative areas like financial
    services, law, etc.
    
    Fields where one can hope to support a family.
    
    CS is also now seen as a difficult major compared to others that offer
    more chances for gainful employment.
    
    That is why I see the US losing its lead in technology pretty soon,
    unless steps are taken to change the outlook for entry-level computer
    graduates.
    
    Research jobs wont stay here if the lower level jobs go. One has to do
    the lower level stuff before you do research. And those jobs for the
    bulk of the workforce, the jobs that support middle class workers and
    their families, just wont be there.
    
    So, increasingly, the CS-related patents, etc. will go to other
    companies, in other countries. Sooner or later the 'offshoring' by
    American companies will trickle to an end, and the foreign companies
    will just be doing it all themselves.
    
    American software development companies will go out of business.
    
    Or almost completely move elsewhere, i.e. 'where the money is'.  (if
    that is possible for them)
    
    End of story.
    
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    Date: Wed, 25 Feb 2004 13:41:37 -0500
    Subject: Re: [Politech] An outsourcer's reply to Greenspan's testimony on
    	overseas jobs
    From: Scott Marshall <scottmarshall@private>
    To: Declan McCullagh <declan@private>, <rw2@private>
    
    on 2/25/04 11:11 AM, Declan McCullagh at declan@private wrote:
    
    Just a comment from the vast USA wilderness of the terminally unemployed:
    
    I appreciate the fact that all entrepreneurs in our socially Darwinistic
    hypercapitalist society are in business to Make Money, not run charity
    operations for the unemployed. But in topical discussions of "outsourcing",
    there is one euphemism that absolutely drives me up a wall: "VALUE". Of
    course, you are simply expressing the basic, fundamental capitalist idea of
    getting the "most" for the "least". However, when I hear the term "value"
    used in a discussion of outsourcing, I see the ruthless and predatory nature
    of American entrepreneurs and the "valueless" lives of unemployed American
    workers. I see my friends and I; laid off, unable to find decent work, or
    employed at the same tasks as before but now working for a fraction of
    previous wages with no benefits.
    
    Ultimately, I am delighted that the slobbering unwashed masses in former
    "third world" or Eastern-bloc countries have now matured and become
    attractive fodder for American capital's insatiable, rapacious greed and
    exploitation. I'm sure the sweat and toil of Indian or Polish workers comes
    at a much better "value" for you and your ilk than that of us formerly
    pampered, spoiled layabouts here in the US. But I, for one, sincerely hope
    that some kind of control or law is enacted to constrain such business
    practices in the near future, thus enabling us discarded American workers to
    reclaim some lost "value" in our quality of life.
    
    Scott Marshall
    New York City
    
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    From: GeoNeff@private
    Message-ID: <4c.2898f0ce.2d6e3131@private>
    Date: Wed, 25 Feb 2004 12:11:13 EST
    Subject: Re: [Politech] Alan Greenspan on offshoring: take the long-term view
    To: declan@private
    
    When is Greenspan's job going to be "offshored" to someone with the
    intellectual skills to understand it?  Clearly he is undertrained and
    lacking in the cognitive skills necessary for his position...witness
    the economy.  Since he is probably beyond a trainable age to catch up,
    and the Indians are so much better at the kind of pattern recognition
    skills necessary for complex economic patterns, Greenspan should be
    removed immediately and replaced by a non-American worker who has a
    better chance of understanding the gigantic chaos of the market (shiva
    land for sure).  Americans are clearly not intellectually competent
    nor trained well enough to run their own government...witness all
    aspects of the good ole boy and girlie bog that passes for it.
    Offsourcing our government may be the only way to recovery...asap.
    
    Georgia 
    
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    Date: Wed, 25 Feb 2004 08:55:29 -0800
    From: <arik@private>
    To: declan@private
    
    Declan,
    
    On this issue I'd point you to the current isse of The Economist,
    which has a rather interesting and clear explanation about why,
    outsourcing jobs is neither a new phenomenon, nor is it a bad one over
    the long run. Just politically unpopular in the short term.
    
    See "The Great Hollowing Out Myth." in the current issue. Sadly I
    don't have an electronic copy and its behind their $2.95 per-article
    gateway or I'd gladly share the text with you. But....
    
    Here's a few basic points liberally paraphrased: Outsourcing is just
    the latest demonstration of the law of competitive advantage, which
    was put forth by the economist David Ricardo about 200 years ago. If a
    product or service can be produced more cheaply aborad, it should be,
    as it is cheaper to import it than produce it at home.
    
    Second, it points that the vast majority of the jobs lost in the last
    recession were both cyclical, and unsustainable.
    
    Third, the U.S. economy has a huge churn of jobs on a monthly basis --
    some 2 million a month, even in the best of times. Over time, this
    process creates more jobs than it destroys. Ultimately, more,
    better-paying domestic jobs are the result of the cost savings of
    outsourcing.
    
    Finally, and this was the stat that surprised me, while the
    U.S. population has grew about 24% between 1980 and 2002, the
    percentage of employed Americans grew much faster by 37.4%. The
    current number of working Americans is 138.6 million, which is almost
    a record in absolute terms and as a proportion of the population.
    
    Arik
    
    ---
    
    Date: Wed, 25 Feb 2004 11:31:30 -0500
    Subject: Re: [Politech] An outsourcer's reply to Greenspan's testimony on
    	overseas jobs
    From: Peggy Miller <pmiller@private>
    To: Declan McCullagh <declan@private>
    
    Mr. Wellner's information supports the long term approach of John Kerry's
    that if we continue to allow offsourcing it will gradually improve the
    economies in other countries and that will eventually put them back in
    competition with our pay scales ..
    
    And I agree that Greenspan's analysis seemed to show a distinct
    'out-of-touch' quality.
    
    Peggy Miller
    The society for shifting the path of least resistance to an uphill course.
    
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