Forwarded from: kelley <kwalker2at_private> At 03:05 AM 9/18/01 -0500, you wrote: >Forwarded from: Darren Reed <darrenrat_private> > >Forgive me for being insensitive, but will someone please explain what >the World Trade Centre disaster has to do with Information Security ? Disaster management and disaster recovery planning. I have already had requests to organize the re-writing of policies to include: personnel, replacing; personnel, delayed trauma, and so forth. Otherwise, see Stratfor's latest, below. I didn't include the attachment, but I trust our fearless William The Conqueror will oblige if he sees fit. Kelley ___________________________________________________________________ S T R A T F O R THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE COMPANY http://www.stratfor.com ___________________________________________________________________ 17 September 2001 -> ON OUR WEBSITE TODAY: * Opposition to Taliban May Unite Iran and U.S. http://www.stratfor.com/home/0109172300.htm * The Intelligence War http://www.stratfor.com/home/0109170410.htm * Defense Spending Potential Rescue For Economy http://www.stratfor.com/home/0109171500.htm ___________________________________________________________________ Is American Infrastructure at Risk? 2120 GMT, 010917 Summary The financial and air transportation industries will feel the aftershocks of the Sept. 11 attacks for years. If terrorists did not fully anticipate this while planning the attacks, they are certainly aware of it now. This raises the possibility that the perpetrators may shift future target sets away from pure terror targets toward vital infrastructure, including oil refineries and bridges. Analysis Stock markets in the United States reopened Sept. 17 for the first time since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on Washington, D.C., and New York, and air traffic began to return to normal. The Dow Jones average and NASDAQ, however, both fell by more than 5 percent, with airline stocks taking particularly strong hits. The effects of Sept. 11 will be apparent for some time in the American financial and transportation sectors and around the globe. The question now is whether these far-reaching ramifications were intended by or incidental to the attackers' plans. The answer may shed light on whether more attacks may follow and what the targets might be. A campaign against important American infrastructure -- such as communications and power installations -- could be in the works. Unlike the Sept. 11 suicide strikes, which shut the United States down for a week, a sustained campaign against vital infrastructure could have effects unseen in the United States since the Civil War. Following the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon, the United States has significantly enhanced security procedures at airports, military facilities and federal buildings. Cities around the nation have also heightened security around potential targets, including high-rise office buildings and local government facilities. It is likely the attackers would have anticipated these changes. In the past, the expectation of heightened security made perpetrators of large-scale terrorist attacks slip into obscurity after the hits and lie low for a year or two before striking again. And they rarely used the same method in rapid succession as security responses rose to match the initial assault tactics. Although this hit-and-run method could be repeated this time, the scale and planning of the Sept. 11 operation, the apparent training of the terrorists and the implications of the attack do not reflect typical patterns. Investigators believe the operatives were in place for months or even years, blending in with local society and waiting patiently for the time of the attack. And unlike many suicide bombers, they were well-trained and educated. The success of the strikes in New York can be measured in many ways, from the attackers' point of view. First, the towers symbolized the financial might of the United States. More than that, their location in the heart of a multinational metropolis represented the global financial system. This is why the World Trade Center was the target of a 1993 bombing as well. Beyond symbolism, the sheer size of the towers and the number of people in and around them made them ideal targets for sowing fear in the United States. But the attacks are having an even deeper ripple effect: the temporary shutdown of the U.S. financial and transportation infrastructure. Trading on U.S. stock markets was delayed four days, and the residual financial repercussions reached well beyond the trading floor. Airline transportation was seriously disrupted. Talk of increased security, fewer passengers and reduced schedules and layoffs are circulating throughout the industry. If the culprits did not fully anticipate these aftershocks, they can see them clearly now. This raises the possibility that those responsible may shift their sights away from pure terror targets -- such heavily populated buildings or sports stadiums -- toward vital infrastructure targets. If the goal of the attack was merely symbolic -- designed to terrorize Americans and invigorate Islamic militant forces around the globe -- secondary or tertiary cells in the United States may well emerge to strike other symbolic or populous civilian targets. This would stir social chaos, but it would not necessarily seriously impede the nation's ability to operate. Israel faces suicide bombings and civil unrest, Spain is racked with bombings and the United Kingdom deals with a troubled Northern Ireland, yet these states continue to function. Attacks on infrastructure would be much more disruptive, however. Whether intentionally or not, the Sept. 11 attacks have shaken air transportation in the United States and around the world for the foreseeable future. The targeting of infrastructure -- bridges across the Mississippi and other major rivers, oil refineries, storage facilities and pipelines, ports and rail lines, telecommunications towers and energy grids -- could seriously destabilize the United States. Whether the groups related to the attackers pursue one or both of these courses will depend on their networks in the United States. The government is now coordinating a massive campaign to track down the people involved in or linked to the Sept. 11 attacks and other terrorist cells. The magnitude of the attacks and the scope of investigations suggests that a broader network of so-called "sleepers" -- terrorists who blend in with society for months or even years before being activated -- may well exist in the United States. The wide net being cast for all conceivable suspects related to this case and past or potential attacks raises the likelihood that members of these sleeper cells may well be picked up. If this occurs, it will be up to the handlers of those cells to determine if the group should remain secret, try to disperse or second-wave assault on the United States and its allies. unconventional methods used, the United States may be in for a sustained campaign on its own soil -- one that could aim at the very heart of the infrastructure networks across the nation. __________________________________________________________________ -- Kelley Walker Organizational Researcher/Technical Writer Interpact, Inc. http://www.interpactinc.com/ - ISN is currently hosted by Attrition.org To unsubscribe email majordomoat_private with 'unsubscribe isn' in the BODY of the mail.
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