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AIDS epidemic vastly underestimated, U.N. says
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Copyright ) 1997 Nando.net
Copyright ) 1997 The Associated Press
PARIS (November 26, 1997 12:23 p.m. EST http://www.nando.net) -- More
than 30 million people worldwide are now living with the AIDS virus, and
about 16,000 new victims are infected every day, the United Nations said
Wednesday in a report that showed previous figures underestimated the
contagion's reach by one-third.
One in every 100 sexually active adults between the ages of 15 and 49 is
infected with HIV, and only one in 10 knows he or she is infected,
UNAIDS said in a report released in Paris.
"The main message of our report is the AIDS epidemic is far from over.
In fact, it's far worse," said Peter Piot, director general of UNAIDS.
The report said that if current rates hold steady, the number of people
infected with the immune-stripping disease "will soar to 40 million" and
the impact of AIDS mortality "is only just beginning."
Earlier figures on HIV infection were far lower because analysts
underestimated the rate of infections, particularly in sub-Saharan
Africa, the report said.
Instead of relying on regional estimates, "for the first time, we went
country-to-country to see what was happening," Piot said. "The rate of
transmission was grossly underestimated," especially in Nigeria and
South Africa, he said.
Rates are also rising in Eastern Europe, primarily due to intravenous
drug users and lack of AIDS education.
Even in the West, Piot said, "prevention efforts are insufficient for
youth. I have a daughter at a school here, and what she's getting in
terms of sex education is inadequate."
Bernard Kouchner, the French junior minister for health, told reporters
he was pressing for a world fund to fight AIDS.
The report said 5.8 million people have been infected in 1997 and an
estimated 5.3 million were infected in 1996, up from the count of 3.1
million people that doctors originally estimated.
The epidemic has struck young people the hardest, Piot said. "Most of
them are under 25 years old
"It is estimated that 2.3 million people died of AIDS in 1997 -- a 50
percent increase over 1996. Nearly half of those deaths were in women,
and 460,000 were in children under 15," the report said.
In the developing world, AIDS is wiping out gains in life expectancy
made in recent decades, the report said.
The report paints a devastating picture of AIDS-ravaged sub-Saharan
Africa, with 7.4 percent of people ages 15 to 49 thought to be infected.
Among the stark African news, the report said that:
--The number of HIV-infected people in Botswana has doubled over the
past five years, to 25 percent to 30 percent of the adult population.
AIDS has wiped out gains in life expectancy, which had risen from under
43 years in 1955 to 61 years in 1990.
--One in five adults in Zimbabwe was HIV-positive in 1996, and in one
town with a large population of migrant workers, seven of 10 pregnant
women were HIV-positive in 1995.
--Twenty-five percent more infants are dying in Zambia and Zimbabwe than
would be the case if there were no HIV. AIDS is expected to push
Zimbabwe's infant mortality rate up 138 percent by 2010.
Uganda is Africa's bright spot, reporting falling infection rates that
were credited to education and wider condom use.
Asia's AIDS epidemic is more recent than Africa's, the report said,
though India's 3 million to 5 million HIV-infected people make it the
country with the most HIV-infected people in the world.
Indicating Asia's figures could jump later, the report cautioned that
estimates there are made on "less information than in other regions." In
the world's most populous nation, China reported up to 200,000 cases and
the figure was expected to double this year, it said.
By CHRISTOPHER BURNS, Associated Press
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