[IWAR] KGB suitcase nukes; ideas, scenarios, forum

From: Mixmaster (mixmasterat_private)
Date: Mon Feb 16 1998 - 14:48:00 PST

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    KGB Suitcase Nukes and Iraq: Ideas, Scenarios, Request for Forum
    Here's what seems to piece together:
      - KGB scientist says KGB developed suitcase nukes (autumn 1997)
      - Russian gov't says no, they didn't
      - KGB guy says well, they didn't tell the Soviet gov't
      - KGB guy says, umm... 50 or so are missing
      ...time passes...
      - Hussein bold enough to stand up to UNSC/USNSC
      - Clinton says, let inspectors in, else war
      - Yeltsin says, do that, start WWIII...
             but clearly not as a threat of Russian action
    Scenarios (please comment): 
    1 - Suitcase nukes in U.S. and "western" countries
      - Clinton goes to war in Iraq
      - Nuke goes off in U.S. or Europe
      - Middle Ease (esp. Iraq) is torched; then what?
    2 - Suitcase nukes in west
      - UNSC/USNSC convince Clinton to back down on Iraq
      - No nuke goes off
      - Countries with terrorist weapons and methods gain power;
    	 precedent set for future demands
    3 - Suitcase nukes in west
      - Clinton backs down
      - No nuke goes off
      - World becomes more stable through plural MAD
    Assuming the Commander-in-chief of the Free World (oxymoron?) doesn't
    start a nuclear war in something like 1, which will happen? A balance
    of power leading to longer-term stability (3), or an imbalanced shift
    setting dangerous precedent (2)?
    Let's take advantage of the capabilities of this list and its members
    and hear a forum on the matter.
    -- mixat_private

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