--- From: simpsonat_private Subject: Re: FC: Americans love surveillance, poll says: Spy on us, please! To: declanat_private Cc: simpsonat_private Date: Fri, 14 Dec 2001 14:54:37 -0500 Hello Declan - This poll is a good illustration of the inherent weaknesses of public opinion polls. Even assuming that the questions were asked using neutral language and the results were accurately tabulated -- both of which are big assumptions, by the way -- the best that this sort of poll can provide is a snapshot of where opinion lies at this moment. The more unsettled and unusual the overall social/political situation is, the more volatile public opinion is, always. When Cyber News Service reports Zogby's spin or synopsis of these results, they are imposing an order, meaning or frame on this data that is scientifically unsound according to the most elementary methodology of polling. The most obvious problem is the implicit claim that their results reveal what Americans (who, exactly?) "favor" is an _ongoing_ situation. There is no evidence at all of this in a one-time Zogby poll, nor can there be. Meanwhile, the trend data on opinions concerning civil liberties collected by polls over the years remains highly contradictory. Everyone has heard of the apocryphal poll in which respondents supposedly rejected the First Amendment. Yet if that question is posed as "Do you favor freedom of speech ?" the poll results are completely different. When asked this month if roadblocks and car searches are an acceptable tactic to defeat terrorism, many people will say yes. The reason? The respondent is stating what he/she thinks should be done with 'them', the terrorists -- a category in which very few people are willing to place themselves. What that same person will say after having been intimidated or roughed up by police (or learning what their children, relatives, neighbors, etc. have been roughed up) is quite a different matter. As far as I can tell from the cited CNS report, the questions, polling methodology, margin of error and specific results of the Zogby poll are presently available. Yet every primer on journalism tells news organizations that it is irresponsible to report polling data without also making that type of information available. The Associated Press, for example, specifically requires that sort of reasonably accurate and complete information on the poll itself when reporting on any polling data, though whether AP always lives up to its own standard is another question. If the Zogby organization or Cyber News Service expects to be taken seriously, they should post the information necessary to make an independent, informed analysis of the data on which they base their claims. Regards, Christopher Simpson ------------------------------------------------------------------------- POLITECH -- Declan McCullagh's politics and technology mailing list You may redistribute this message freely if you include this notice. Declan McCullagh's photographs are at http://www.mccullagh.org/ To subscribe to Politech: http://www.politechbot.com/info/subscribe.html This message is archived at http://www.politechbot.com/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
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