Previous Politech message: "TradeSports.com lets you bet on Saddam's survivability" http://www.politechbot.com/p-04538.html --- Date: Wed, 26 Mar 2003 22:48:16 -0800 To: Declan McCullagh <declanat_private> From: Richard Pauli <rpauliat_private> Subject: Interpreting sudden price drop in Saddam's demise contracts Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed Declan - This may be of interest to Politech subscribers... A sudden price drop seen in the market for predictions on Saddam's date of demise - might indicate gamblers suddenly think he may make it past March 31st. The Web trading/gambling on the future of Saddam has taken a big drop recently. Check http://www.tradesports.com/ where you can gamble/trade on all kinds of future events (mostly sports). If you click on IRAQ.SADDAM.MAR03 you can see a chart on the history of how money has been invested on whether "Saddam Hussein is not President/Leader of Iraq by 31st March 2003". In the last few days the graph there shows a sharp decline in the percentage chance that he will be gone soon - from up in the 70's to around the teens now. Market saying he is way less likely to be gone by then. These are like day traders, buying and selling for the changes in the price of the contract. Saddam contracts now go out to the end of June even. Their numbers change by the minute, if you want to note such things. Dig around and you can trade on the colors red, orange, yellow, blue and green for "Security Alert Level March 2003" - which has not moved as much recently. Another article: http://www.who2beton.com/articles/tradesports/tradesports-saddam.php Richard Pauli Seattle, WA ------------------------------------------------------------------------- POLITECH evening reception in New York City at 7 pm, April 1, 2003 at CFP: http://www.politechbot.com/events/cfp2003/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------- POLITECH -- Declan McCullagh's politics and technology mailing list You may redistribute this message freely if you include this notice. To subscribe to Politech: http://www.politechbot.com/info/subscribe.html This message is archived at http://www.politechbot.com/ Declan McCullagh's photographs are at http://www.mccullagh.org/ Like Politech? Make a donation here: http://www.politechbot.com/donate/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
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